Det danske IPCC-arbejde

Danmark har fået ny kontaktperson til IPCC, da jeg går på pension ved udgangen af august. Den nye kontaktperson er Tina Christensen, Forsknings- og udviklingsafdelingen ved DMI. Mail-adressen er tic@dmi.dk og ipcc@dmi.dk.

Tina har gennem de sidste godt to år assisteret
med opgaver relateret til rollen som dansk kontaktperson og har deltaget i IPCC
plenarmøder. Hun deltager desuden i de internationale forhandlinger under
klimakonventionen og i EU-koordineringen af videnskabelige emner under
klimakonventionen. Hun arbejder med sagsbehandling relateret til klimavidenskab
og –forskning. Tidligere har hun forsket i emner relateret til ozonlaget og
stratosfærisk vanddamp.

Nu søger IPCC’s Working Group 3 reviewere til første udkast til bidrag til panelets 5. hovedrapport. Reviewet foregår fra 20. juli til 14. september. Interesserede eksperter kan tilmelde sig på http://www.ipcc-wg3.de/ar5review/registration/

Udkastet inkl. figurer er på næsten 2500 sider og har følgende inddeling:

Table of Contents
Summary for Policy Makers
Technical Summary
Frequently Asked Questions (extracted from the chapters below)

I. INTRODUCTION

1. Introductory Chapter

II. FRAMING ISSUES

2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change Response

Policies
Risk perception
Risk and uncertainty in climate change
Metrics of uncertainty and risk
Managing uncertainty, risk and learning
Tools for analyzing uncertainty and risk
Frequently asked questions

3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
Assessing methods of policy choice
Ethical and socio-economic principles
Metrics of costs and benefits
Economics, rights and duties
Justice, equity and responsibility
Behavioural economics and culture
Policy instruments and regulation
Technological change
Frequently asked questions

4. Sustainable Development and Equity

Determinants, drivers and barriers
Mitigative capacity and mitigation
Links to adaptive capacity and adaptation
Development pathways
Consumption patterns and carbon accounting
Integration of framing issues in the context of sustainable development
Implications for subsequent chapters
Frequently asked questions

III. PATHWAYS FOR MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE

5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation

Global trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and short-lived species
Key drivers of global change
Production, consumption and trade patterns
Contribution of technological change to mitigation
Contribution of behavioural change to mitigation
Co-benefits and tradeoffs of mitigation including air pollution
Carbon and radiation management and other geoengineering options including environmental risks
The system perspective: linking sectors, technologies and consumption patterns
Frequently asked questions

6. Assessing Transformation Pathways

Tools of analysis
Climate stabilization: Concepts, costs and implications for the macroeconomy, sectors and technology portfolios, taking into account differences across regions
Integrating long- and short-term perspectives
Integrating technological and societal change
Sustainable development and transformation pathways, taking into account differences across regions
Risks of transformation pathways
Integrating sector analyses and transformation scenarios
Frequently asked questions

7. Energy Systems

Energy production, conversion, transmission and distribution
New developments in emission trends and drivers
Resources and resource availability
Mitigation technology options and practices (including energy efficiency)
Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and social acceptability
Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural, legal, etc.)
Sustainable development and behavioral aspects
Costs and potentials
Gaps in knowledge and data
Frequently asked questions

8. Transport

Freight and passenger transport (land, air, sea and water)
New developments in emission trends and drivers
Mitigation technology options and practices (including energy efficiency)
Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and social acceptability
Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural, legal, etc.)
Sustainable development and behavioral aspects
Costs and potentials
Gaps in knowledge and data
Frequently asked questions

9. Buildings

Commercial, residential and public buildings
New developments in emission trends and drivers
Mitigation technology options and practices (including energy efficiency)
Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and social acceptability
Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural, legal, etc.)
Sustainable development and behavioral aspects
Costs and potentials
Gaps in knowledge and data
Frequently asked questions

10. Industry

New developments in extractive industries, manufacturing and services (including tourism)
New developments in emission trends and drivers
Material substitution, material reuse and waste
Mitigation technology options and practices (including efficiency improvements, household and industry waste)
Infrastructure and systemic perspectives
Climate change feedback and interaction with adaptation
Technological, environmental and other risks and uncertainties; and social acceptability
Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
Barriers and opportunities (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural, legal, etc.)
Sustainable development and behavioral aspects
Costs and potentials
Gaps in knowledge and data
Frequently asked questions

11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)

Introduction to integrated assessment of AFOLU
Emission trends (including agricultural productivity) and drivers
Competition and opportunities for land-use (energy, food, feed and timber production; housing, nature conservation, biodiversity and other land uses)
Mitigation technologies and practices in forestry, agriculture (e.g. biochar) and livestock farming
Mitigation effectiveness (non-permanence: human and natural impacts; displacement; saturation)
Systemic perspectives (including integrated land-use assessment)
Synergies, tradeoffs and interactions with adaptation and other mitigation options
Climate change feedback, natural disturbance and extreme events
Environmental and other risks and uncertainties
Co-benefits, tradeoffs, spill-over effects
Opportunities and barriers (technological, physical, financial, institutional, cultural, legal, etc.)
Sustainable development and behavioral aspects
Costs and potentials
Gaps in knowledge and data
Frequently asked questions

12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning

Urbanisation challenges and opportunities for climate change mitigation
Settlement structures, density, forms and lifecycle assessments
Infrastructure, spatial planning and mitigation
Lifestyle changes and efficiency
Waste
Water/energy nexus
Human settlements and climate change: Experiences across countries
Frequently asked questions

IV. ASSESSMENT OF POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS AND FINANCE

13. International Cooperation: Agreements and Instruments

Introduction
Framing concepts and an assessment of means for international cooperation
International agreements: Examples and lessons for climate policy
Multilateral and bilateral agreements across different scales
Climate policy architectures
Mechanisms for technology and knowledge development, transfer, diffusion
Capacity building
Linkages between international and national policies
Linkages between international and regional cooperation
Interactions between climate change mitigation policy and trade
Performance assessment on policies and institutions including market mechanisms
Investment and finance
The role of public and private sectors and public-private partnership
Frequently asked questions

14. Regional Development and Cooperation

Introduction
Opportunities and barriers of regional cooperation
Current development patterns and goals
Energy and development
Urbanisation and development
Consumption and production patterns in the context of development
Low carbon development: Opportunities and barriers
Links between mitigation, adaptation and development
Investment and finance
The role of public and private sectors and public-private partnership
Frequently asked questions

15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions

Introduction
Characteristics and classification of policy instruments and packages
Approaches and tools used to evaluate policies and institutions
Research and development policy
Assessment of the performance of policies and measures in developed and developing countries taking into account development level and capacity
Framework: Role of institutions and governance
Capacity building
National, state and local linkages
Links to adaptation
Synergies and tradeoffs among policies
Assessing policy design options
Investment and finance
The role of public and private sectors and public-private partnership
The role of stakeholders including NGOs
Frequently asked questions

16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues

Financing low-carbon investments, opportunities, key-drivers and barriers
Financing developed countries’ mitigation activities
Financing mitigation activities in and for developing countries including for technology development, transfer and diffusion
Financing infrastructure and institutional arrangements
Synergies and tradeoffs between financing mitigation and adaptation
Directing and leveraging private financing
Innovative financing
Approaches and scale of financing at national, regional and international level in short-, mid- and long-term
Enabling environments
Frequently asked questions

Rapport fra IPCC’s 35. plenarmøde den 6.-9. juni 2012 i Geneve

Mødet havde en lang dagsorden med bl.a. budget for 2012 og de følgende år, status for arbejdet med panelets 5. hovedrapport, arbejdsprogram for task-forcen for nationale drivhusgasopgørelser, kommunikationsstrategi og forskellige udeståender omkring regler og procedurer for panelets arbejde. Endelig er tid og sted for de næste møder et fast dagsordenspunkt.

Dagsorden og mødepapirer ligger på http://www.ipcc.ch/scripts/_session_template.php?page=_35ipcc.htm. Fra Danmark deltog undertegnede og Carsten Eskebjerg fra Klima-, energi- og bygningsministeriets departement.

Arbejdet med IPCC’s femte hovedrapport skrider frem helt efter planen. Flere forskere fra Danmark er involveret i arbejdet. Forskningsleder Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen fra DMI er koordinerende hovedfatter på kapitlet om regionale klimaforandringer. Rapportens kapitel om fødevaresikkerhed bestyres af professor John R. Porter fra Københavns Universitet. Sekretariatschef Nicholas King fra Global Biodiversity Information Facility i København er hovedforfatter på kapitlet om rammer for beslutningstagning, seniorforsker Simon Bolwig fra Risø-DTU er hovedforfatter på kapitlet om bæredygtig udvikling, ph.d. Maria Josefina Figueroa fra DTU er hovedforfatter for afsnittet om transport, mens programleder Kirsten Halsnæs fra Risø-DTU har en vigtig rolle som review-editor på kapitlet om regional udvikling og samarbejde. Desuden deltager andre forskere som bidragydere og reviewere.

IPCC’s Arbejdsgruppe 1 (den videnskabelige baggrund) udsendte sit første udkast i ekspertreview i slutningen af 2011, og de er nu i gang med at indarbejde de mange kommentarer, som er modtaget. Mødet (IPCC’s session nr. 36), hvor rapporten skal færdiggøres, finder sted i september 2013 i Stockholm.

Første udkast til rapporten fra Arbejdsgruppe 2 (effekter og sårbarhed) er ude i ekspertreview frem til den 6. august. Rapporten fra Arbejdsgruppe 3 (modvirkning af klimaændringer) sendes i ekspertreview fra den 20. juli til den 14. september. Man kan tilmelde sig som ekspertreviewer hos gruppernes tekniske støtteenheder via arbejdsgruppernes hjemmesider på http://www.ipcc.ch/working_groups/working_groups.shtml. Rapporterne fra Arbejdsgrupperne 2 og 3 færdiggøres begge i foråret 2014.

Arbejdet med Synteserapporten er lige gået i gang. Der er udpeget en skrivegruppe på 45 medlemmer, som mødes den 11. -13. juni. Synteserapporten færdiggøres på et møde i Danmark i oktober 2014.

Et andet dagsordenspunkt på mødet var opdatering af de retningslinjer, som landene bruger til at opgøre udslip af drivhusgasser fra jord- og skovbrug og ændret arealanvendelse. Landene under FN’s klimakonvention UNFCCC skal opgøre deres udslip og binding af drivhusgasser som følge af menneskelige aktiviteter, og her er det vigtigt at den nyeste viden og forskning indgår. IPCC har i 2011 igangsat tilsvarende arbejde med at opgøre udslip fra vådområder (se http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/), og her er forsker Steen Gyldenkærne fra Århus Universitet involveret som forfatter. De nye retningslinjer færdiggøres efter planen i oktober 2013. Professor Ole John Nielsen fra Københavns Universitet er medlem af Editorial Board of the IPCC Emission Factor Database.

Mødet i den forgangne uge arbejdede desuden videre med at forbedre processer og procedurer i IPCC. Efter panelets møde i Sydkorea tilbage i oktober 2010 har fire taskgrupper arbejdet med konkrete opfølgninger på anbefalingerne fra en rapport fra Inter Academy Council (IAC), som FN’s generalsekretær Ban Ki-moon og klimapanelets formand Rajendra Pachauri havde efterspurgt. Disse opfølgninger er nu omsat til konkrete tekster, som snart kan ses på http://www.ipcc.ch/.

En anden opfølgning på IAC’s anbefalinger er udarbejdelse af en kommunikationsstrategi. Denne strategi har to formål:

1. at formidle resultaterne fra IPCC’s rapporter gennem en klar og afbalanceret information om klimaændringer, inkl. risici og videnskabelige usikkerheder og uden at kompromittere nøjagtigheden

2. at forklare hvordan IPCC arbejder, herunder hvordan panelet udvælger forfattere og reviewere og frembringer sine rapporter. Formålet er at udbrede forståelse for rapporterne og støtte og genbekræfte panelets status som et troværdigt, transparent og autoritativt videnskabeligt organ.

På mødet blev en kommunikationsstrategi vedtaget, og den skal nu implementeres.

Næste IPCC-møde bliver i september 2013 i Stockholm.

Jeremiah Lengosa, vicegeneralsekretær for WMO, på talerstolen ved åbningsceremonien. Lengosa lagde meget vægt på IPCC’s kommende hovedrapport og de store forventninger, der er til rapporten. IPCC har en vigtig rolle med at tilvejebringe viden til brug i de politiske forhandlinger, og der er meget ny forskning siden AR4 fra 2007. Han gjorde også opmærksom på de meteorologiske institutters vigtige rolle i forbindelse med at varsle ekstremt vejr for at undgå skader. Her er IPCC’s nylige særrapport om ekstremt vejr også nyttig.

Forfatterne i IPCC’s arbejdsgruppe II er ved at være klar med første udkast til deres bidrag til IPCC’s femte hovedrapport AR5: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Første udkast er i review i perioden 11. juni til 6. august 2012.

Faglige eksperter, som vil være reviewere på udkastet, søges.

Ekspertreviewet er et nøgleelement i IPCC’s proces. Formålet er at sikre at rapporten giver en balanceret og omfattende vurdering af de seneste videnskabelige resultater på området.

Interesserede eksperter kan tilmelde sig via mail til tsu@ipcc-wg2.gov

Se også http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ar5/ar5-outline-compilation.pdf og http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/

Den overordnede kapitelstruktur i rapporten er fastlagt således:

Outline of the Working Group II Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report

Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

Summary for Policymakers

Technical Summary

Each sectoral and regional chapter will include a standard set of topics that are referred to as [CONTEXT] in each chapter outline:

• Observed impacts, with detection and attribution

• Projected integrated climate change impacts, with regional variation by scenario and time slice

• Assessing impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks

• Adaptation and managing risks

• Case studies

• Research and data gaps

Each chapter will include an executive summary, FAQs, and references

PART A: GLOBAL AND SECTORAL ASPECTS

Context for the AR5

1. Point of departure

2. Foundations for decisionmaking

Natural and Managed Resources and Systems, and Their Uses

3. Freshwater resources

4. Terrestrial and inland water systems

5. Coastal systems and low-lying areas

6. Ocean systems

7. Food production systems and food security

Human Settlements, Industry, and Infrastructure

8. Urban Areas

9. Rural Areas

10. Key economic sectors and services

Human Health, Well-Being, and Security

11. Human health

12. Human security

13. Livelihoods and poverty

Adaptation

14. Adaptation needs and options

15. Adaptation planning and implementation

16. Adaptation opportunities, constraints, and limits

17. Economics of adaptation

Chapters 14-17 will include case studies of, e.g., Least Developed Countries, indigenous peoples, and other vulnerable countries and groups Multi-Sector Impacts, Risks, Vulnerabilities, and Opportunities

18. Detection and attribution of observed impacts

19. Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities

20. Climate-resilient pathways: adaptation, mitigation, and sustainable development

PART B: REGIONAL ASPECTS

{Subtitle: Contribution of IPCC WGII Incorporating Inputs from IPCC Working Group I “The Physical Science Basis” and Working Group III “Mitigation of Climate change”}

This part will include analyses of consistently defined sub-regions and crossregional hotspots (e.g., Mediterranean, megadeltas), based on the availability of regional information.

21. Regional context

Regional Chapters

22. Africa

23. Europe

24. Asia

25. Australasia

26. North America

27. Central and South America

28. Polar Regions

29. Small Islands

30. Open Oceans

Appendix I: Glossary

Appendix II: Acronyms

Appendix III: Contributors to the IPCC WGII Fifth Assessment Report

Appendix IV: Reviewers of the IPCC WGII Fifth Assessment Report

Index